New U.S. tariffs on imported gemstones are reshaping exhibitor participation, commercial strategies, and deal volumes. Tucson remains central to colored stone trading, but the market is becoming increasingly selective and polarized.
As the Tucson Gem Show 2026 (January 28–February 15) approaches, the U.S. gem industry is operating in an environment of significant uncertainty. The decisive factor is the new trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration, with rates ranging from 10% to 26% on gemstones from key countries including India, China, Vietnam, Brazil, and Colombia.
Conversations among industry operators reveal a cautious outlook. Purchasing decisions are becoming more deliberate, while many sellers are looking to move pre-tariff inventory before the new rates take effect.
A Central Role, But Lower Volumes Expected
Tucson continues to hold its position as the international reference point for colored stones, yet the anticipated deal volumes appear lower than in previous editions. The market is showing increasing polarization: the high-end segment is holding relatively steady, while the commercial tier faces greater headwinds.
The 2025 Signal
The 2025 edition recorded robust transaction numbers, though attendance fell short of expectations. High-quality and rare gemstones were quickly absorbed by the market. The segment focused on more commercially oriented gemstones proved more hesitant, weighed down by tariff-related outlooks and a macroeconomic environment that remains inflationary. These dynamics anticipated the challenges that are now fully visible on the eve of 2026.
Reduced Participation and Booth Reorganization
The introduction of tariffs is already reshaping the fair’s geographic composition. While withdrawals aren’t across the board, there’s a notable reduction in booth space and product assortments, particularly in the mid-to-lower segments.
India. With tariffs reaching 26%, approximately 50% of mid-market and commercial operators are planning to reduce their presence. The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) has flagged potential employment impacts in the Surat district.
China and Vietnam. Import volumes to the United States are declining, with greater focus on targeted supplies and reduced direct fair participation.
Brazil and Colombia. Colored stones — particularly Paraíba, emeralds, and tourmalines — are more costly to replenish. Some operators are rerouting commercial flows through Mexico, though such arrangements are now more complex.
According to the American Gem Trade Association (AGTA), tariffs represent the industry’s primary structural challenge in recent years, with an estimated 20% to 30% reduction in overall booth numbers.
Pre-Tariff Inventory and Operational Strategies
U.S. regulations exempt merchandise imported before November 2025 and already present in the country from the new tariffs.
This provision is shaping near-term strategies:
- Clearing lower-tier inventory
- Earlier shipments from Asian suppliers
- Increased reliance on consignment sales
- Concentrated buying of higher-value gemstones
According to traders, Tucson 2026 represents the last opportunity to operate at pre-tariff prices, before an estimated 16% average price increase in the period following the fair.
A More Selective Market
Participation intentions remain strong: 96% of exhibitors and 81% of buyers confirm attendance. Yet revenue expectations are more muted.
The mid-market segment could see a contraction raging from 15% to 25%, while the high-end segment is expected to grow roughly 10%, driven by rare stones with limited substitutes.
Buyer interest is concentrating on tsavorites, spinels, untreated sapphires, and gemstones with documented provenance — further evidence of demand increasingly oriented toward quality over volume.
Tucson Gem Show 2026 is defined less by volume and more by its role as a market-positioning event. Within a context marked by commercial and geopolitical uncertainties, the show reaffirms its role as a privileged vantage point for the international gem market, signaling dynamics poised to shape the entire 2026 landscape.
