This content was first published on IGR – Italian Gemological Review no. 23 in 2026. The information provided here is therefore current as of the original publication date.
In 2023, De Beers was still valued by Anglo American at approximately $4.9 billion. By February 2026, that book value had effectively been halved to around $2.3 billion. Over the same period, production declined from 31.9 million carats in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2025. This is therefore not simply a financial write-down, but the manifestation of a deep-rooted industrial downsizing.
Something in the system is no longer functioning if, since April 24, 2024, De Beers has officially been put up for sale. The first offer submitted by BHP for Anglo American valued the group at approximately £31.1 billion; in the following weeks the proposal was progressively increased to roughly £34 billion. Both offers were rejected. The reason is highly significant: BHP’s strategic interest was not diamonds, but copper, which Anglo American considers the key raw material of the new industrial cycle and the global energy transition. Copper is a strategic asset to retain; diamonds, conversely, are a sacrificial segment.
Botswana has put itself forward as a potential buyer. This country, already a De Beers shareholder for some time, is tied to the group through recently renegotiated agreements. Botswana’s economy is structurally dependent on diamond mining: GDP, employment, foreign currency inflows and social stability remain deeply connected to the mining sector. For this reason, the government has openly expressed interest in a possible direct intervention in the acquisition process. The country may ultimately face a choice between preserving immediate socio-economic stability and deepening its dependence on a single resource undergoing structural decline. Economic diversification, repeatedly announced over the years, now appears postponed by the urgent need to sustain the diamond sector in the short term.
Despite Botswana’s efforts, the private market is, however, clearly in the lead. In fact, in July 2026, Anglo American selected a preferred bidder for its 85% stake: the Global Diamond Consortium (GDC), led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny and backed by diamond‑producing governments (notably Namibia and Angola), a Qatari sovereign fund, and historic industry operators.
This is shaping up to be a singular situation: potential buyers who are simultaneously historic clients, industrial insiders, and parties with an evident informational advantage.
Anglo American has assessed that the business models of the possible contenders — Botswana and the private investor consortium — diverge radically. It must have seemed a limitation that Botswana’s main objective would essentially have been preserving the current centralized extraction system, banking on a future market normalization and the ability to absorb the current surplus of approximately 12 million carats of unsold rough, predominantly small-sized stones. It should not be underestimated that the preference for the private investors’ consortium appears more innovative, as it is oriented toward a radical transformation of the very concept of natural diamond value: a model defined as a “boutique of unique finds”, focused almost exclusively on exceptional, large stones exceeding 10 carats.
At the core of this vision is the conviction, increasingly widespread in the sector, that synthetic diamonds are destined to definitively cannibalize the small-sized natural diamond segment, which, while representing approximately 99% of production volume, constitutes an increasingly less strategic share in terms of profitability. Value will therefore tend to concentrate on rare, large stones with excellent gemological grading characteristics.
Technology itself is accelerating this transformation. The development of X-ray Transmission (XRT), XRT Tomography and neutron analysis technologies now allows increasingly selective identification of large diamonds already during the early stages of ore processing, significantly improving the probability of recovering high-value stones intact. In this context, the historical objective of maximizing total carat output through the processing of enormous volumes of ore risks progressively losing economic relevance. If 99% of production consists of small stones with limited added value, the sustainability of the current extraction model will inevitably need to be reconsidered.
Gem news published on IGR – Italian Gemological Review #23 – Autumn 2026.
